An Introduction to Bayesian Networks for Environmental Risk Assessment and Management
Citation:
Landis, W. AND J. Carriger. An Introduction to Bayesian Networks for Environmental Risk Assessment and Management. SETAC North America 39th Annual Meeting, Sacramento, CA, November 04 - 08, 2018.
Impact/Purpose:
Introduce Bayesian network platform session at SETAC North America Meeting in Sacramento. This meeting offers opportunities to feature the connections between desired ecosystem goods and services, stable flourishing societies and sustainable economies.
Description:
Bayesian networks (BNs, also known as Bayesian belief networks) are a means of describing cause and effect using directed acyclic graphs where the interactions between the nodes are described using conditional probability tables. That is a way of saying that that there are nodes (steps in a cause-effect model), which are connected by lines of influence, and the interactions are described using probability tables that take into account all possible combinations of inputs to generate the probability distributions for each possible outcome. Bayesian networks inherently incorporate uncertainty and can use wide varieties of data, from precise determinations of molecular interactions to expert elicitation. B. Marcot was an early pioneer in the use of BNs for environmental management for the US Forest Service. The use of BNs in ecological risk assessment began in the early 2000s pioneered by B. Hart and C. Pollino in Australia. Since 2010, a number of papers have been published on the use of BNs to evaluate management options, to evaluate risk, to provide a more quantitative framework for the relative risk model, and to become a part of adaptive management. This session includes presentations by developers and users of Bayesian networks to estimate risk, calculate the outcomes of management alternatives and the use of such techniques to make policy decisions. Likely topics include estimating the risk due to contaminants, invasive species, oil spills, climate change, the inclusion of adverse outcome pathways as part of ecological risk assessment, and the evaluation of management alternatives. The use of BNs as part of developing long-term policy in collaboration with managers and stakeholders will be presented. The big questions are now where do we go from here and the adoption of BNs to advance ecological risk assessment and management.